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Barraza, G A, Back, W E and Mata, F (2004) Probabilistic Forecasting of Project Performance Using Stochastic S Curves. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(01), 25–32.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Project management; Scheduling; Monte Carlo method; Simulation; Cost control; Forecasting; Performance evaluation; scheduling; project management; cost optimal control; forecasting theory; performance evaluation; Monte Carlo methods; civil engineering;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2004)130:1(25)
  • Abstract:
    This study presents a new methodology for evaluating at-completion project performance status. This new procedure uses the concept of stochastic S curves (SS curves) to determine forecasted project estimates as an alternative to using deterministic S curves and traditional forecasting methods. A simulation approach is used for generating the stochastic S curves, and it is based on the defined variability in duration and cost of the individual activities within the process. Stochastic S curves provide probability distributions for the budget and time values required to complete the project at every selected point of intermediate completion. Final project performance is determined by comparing the planned budget and project duration, with the expected forecasted final cost and elapsed time, respectively. The SS-curve methodology permits objective evaluation of project performance without the limitations inherent in a deterministic approach. The probabilistic characteristics of this approach enable users to more accurately determine at-completion cost and duration variations and evaluate the performance improvement of proposed corrective actions.

Bonnal, P, Gourc, D and Lacoste, G (2004) Where Do We Stand with Fuzzy Project Scheduling?. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(01), 114–23.

Chan, A P C, Scott, D and Chan, A P L (2004) Factors Affecting the Success of a Construction Project. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(01), 153–5.

Cho, Y, Haas, C T, Sreenivasan, S V and Liapi, K (2004) Position Error Modeling for Automated Construction Manipulators. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(01), 50–58.

Deng, X, Ding, S and Tian, Q (2004) Reasons underlying a mandatory high penalty construction contract bonding system. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(01), 67–74.

Dikmen, I and Birgonul, M T (2004) Neural Network Model to Support International Market Entry Decisions. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(01), 59–66.

Dzeng, R J, Wang, W C and Tserng, H P (2004) Module-Based Construction Schedule Administration for Public Infrastructure Agencies. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(01), 5–14.

Elazouni, A M and Gab-Allah, A A (2004) Finance-Based Scheduling of Construction Projects Using Integer Programming. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(01), 15–24.

Ford, D N, Anderson, S D, Damron, A J, de Las Casas, R, Gokmen, N and Kuennen, S T (2004) Managing Constructibility Reviews to Reduce Highway Project Durations. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(01), 33–42.

Goodrum, P M and Haas, C T (2004) Long-Term Impact of Equipment Technology on Labor Productivity in the U.S. Construction Industry at the Activity Level. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(01), 124–33.

Hauck, A J, Walker, D H T, Hampson, K D and Peters, R J (2004) Project Alliancing at National Museum of Australia—Collaborative Process. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(01), 143–52.

Ho, S P and Liu, L Y (2004) Analytical Model for Analyzing Construction Claims and Opportunistic Bidding. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(01), 94–104.

Ling, F Y Y, Chan, S L, Chong, E and Ee, L P (2004) Predicting Performance of Design-Build and Design-Bid-Build Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(01), 75–83.

Marzouk, M and Moselhi, O (2004) Multiobjective Optimization of Earthmoving Operations. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(01), 105–13.

Shapira, A (2004) Work Inputs and Related Economic Aspects of Multitier Shoring Towers. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(01), 134–42.

Shr, J and Chen, W T (2004) Setting Maximum Incentive for Incentive/Disincentive Contracts for Highway Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(01), 84–93.

Treloar, G J, Love, P E D and Crawford, R H (2004) Hybrid Life-Cycle Inventory for Road Construction and Use. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(01), 43–49.